A recent study by demographer Lyman Stone and sociologist Brad Wilcox highlights a notable exodus of families from Minnesota in 2021 and 2022, raising questions about the impact of the state’s policies under Governor Tim Walz, Kamala Harris’s 2024 running mate.
The study, published by the Institute for Family Studies, challenges claims by some progressive commentators that Walz’s policies have been beneficial for families and children.
The research draws on data from the American Community Survey and reveals that Minnesota experienced a net loss of families with children over the two-year period.
According to Stone and Wilcox, the state ranked among the worst third in the nation for family migration, placing it among 18 states that saw more families leave than arrive.
From 2021 to 2022, Minnesota lost approximately 4,000 families, representing a 0.3 percent decline in family population.
This placed the state 13th among those with the highest percentage of family migration losses.
The report connects this outflow to broader national trends, where states known for progressive policies—such as New York, California, and Oregon—saw similar patterns.
For example, New York experienced a loss of 71,000 families (a 1.9 percent decrease), while California lost 92,000 families (a 1.2 percent decline).
These states, like Minnesota, supported President Joe Biden in the 2020 election and have implemented policies focused on diversity, equity, and inclusion.
Conversely, the study shows that states that backed former President Donald Trump in both 2016 and 2020 saw family migration gains.
Idaho, a deeply Republican state, led the country with a 2.3 percent increase in family population from 2021 to 2022.
Texas and Florida also saw significant gains, with Texas gaining 53,000 families and Florida adding 38,000.
The researchers attribute this shift to several factors, including the COVID-19 pandemic, which prompted families to seek more space in suburban and rural areas.
They also cite the appeal of states with quicker school reopenings, new school choice laws, lower taxes, and robust job growth as key motivators.
Cultural issues, particularly resistance to far-left gender theory in schools, have also driven some families toward states with more conservative values.
Ultimately, the study suggests that the outmigration from Minnesota and other blue states is part of a larger national trend, where parents are seeking environments they believe better support their values and offer more opportunities for their children.
Governor Walz’s policies, along with the state’s progressive stance on family and cultural issues, appear to have played a role in the decision of many families to leave.
As the 2024 election approaches, the findings could raise questions about the broader appeal of these policies in states experiencing similar population shifts.
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