Every story about polling results should be accompanied by two significant caveats.
Firstly, established pollsters have a track record of extreme inaccuracy, particularly with errors that consistently favor Democratic presidential nominees, raising concerns of potential bias.
Secondly, the recent New York Times/Siena College poll released on Sunday showed former President Donald Trump holding a one-point lead nationwide over Vice President Kamala Harris ahead of their upcoming presidential debate in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
This result was described as “surprising” by a Times writer and could indicate a shift towards Trump.
The shift began when former independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. allied with Trump last month at an Arizona rally on Aug. 23.
Kennedy announced his decision to join forces with Trump to combat what he described as a Democrat-dominated establishment dedicated to perpetual war, censorship, and attacks on children.
The Times/Siena poll may have come as a surprise due to the establishment news outlet’s honesty about its meaning.
In late July, Democratic elites staged a coup to force President Joe Biden from the race and subsequently the establishment media conducted Harris’s campaign for her.
However, it appears that even with the support of the fawning press, the weakest candidate in modern history can only be carried for so long.
“Mr. Trump may have had a rough month following the president’s departure and amid the burst of excitement that Ms. Harris brought Democrats, but the poll suggests his support remains remarkably resilient,” the Times admitted.
Undoubtedly, some voters have observed that Harris only speaks in highly controlled settings and avoids answering questions even from friendly reporters, which has become somewhat comical.
Similarly, some voters may have noticed her significant lack of honesty, authenticity, and tendency to speak in a confusing manner. Additionally, they may have observed her inconsistent policy positions and failure as “border czar.”
The decline in Harris’s popularity began well before it was reflected in the Times/Siena poll, as other established pollsters had already noted the same trend.
To put Trump’s lead into perspective, consider that the final set of polls by the same pollster for the 2020 presidential election showed Biden with an 11-point lead in Wisconsin, but he won by less than one percentage point.
In Ohio and Iowa, where Biden was shown to be leading by one and three points respectively in the final Times/Siena 2020 polls, Trump ultimately won by much larger margins.
So if an establishment pollster like Times/Siena indicates that Trump has a one-point lead over Harris nationwide, it is likely that his real margin is significantly larger. Whether this will be reported by establishment outlets on election night remains to be seen.
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