A new Siena College poll released on Thursday delivered a surprising result: former President Donald Trump now has a higher net favorability rating than New York Governor Kathy Hochul.
Hochul, who was elected in 2022 after serving as lieutenant governor under Andrew Cuomo (D), took office in 2021 following Cuomo’s resignation over sexual misconduct allegations.
Despite her rise to power, Hochul is now facing an approval rating crisis. According to the poll, only 34% of New York residents approve of her performance, while 54% disapprove.
Meanwhile, Trump, though still unpopular in his home state, has a slightly better favorability rating than Hochul. The poll revealed that 39% of New Yorkers view him favorably, compared to 57% who do not.
Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg highlighted the unexpected nature of the results in the poll’s press release: “Hochul’s favorability rating, 20 points underwater, is worse than Trump’s, 18 points underwater. To repeat, Kathy Hochul has a lower net favorability rating in New York than Donald Trump.”
The decline in Hochul’s approval ratings has been swift. Last month, 39% of New Yorkers approved of the governor, while 50% disapproved. Her current 34% approval rating represents a notable drop.
Greenberg noted that Hochul’s favorability ratings have never been particularly strong, saying, “She’s never been viewed favorably by 50% of voters in a state where 49% of the voters are Democrats.”
But her current numbers represent an all-time low for her administration, with a 34% approval and 54% disapproval rating.
Additionally, her job approval rating has also sunk to a record low, standing at 39% approval and 56% disapproval.
Trump, on the other hand, appears to be rallying confidence in his chances in New York, a traditionally Democratic state.
Speaking at a rally in Long Island on Wednesday, Trump claimed that Republicans could make a breakthrough in the state during the 2024 election.
“We are going to win New York,” he declared. “That’s the first time in many, many years that a Republican can honestly say it, and we’re going to do it.”
While Trump’s optimism is bold, the historical odds are stacked against him. A Republican presidential candidate hasn’t won New York since Ronald Reagan in 1984.
However, Trump seems to be banking on his deep ties to the state, where he lived and conducted business for decades.
Although his primary residence is now in Florida, Trump maintains a presence in New York City, where he still owns an apartment in Trump Tower.
His youngest son, Barron, is currently living there while attending New York University.
Trump’s strategy hinges on winning over New York voters, knowing that flipping the state could have a significant impact on the national election.
“If we win New York, the election nationwide is over. We take over the White House, and we fix up our country,” Trump said during the rally.
While the path for a Republican victory in New York remains steep, Trump’s confidence reflects the unpredictable nature of modern elections.
With the 2024 election approaching, it remains to be seen how this unusual political landscape will unfold on November 5.
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